Speaker
Description
The development of the SEIR model of the spread of the epidemic with Poisson flows, detailed in the work [1], inspired by some ideas from [2], [3], is presented. The extension of the original model is made by dividing the general population into two groups with different epidemic spread rates consistent on average with those of the general group. A numerical study of the impact on the development of the epidemic of extreme variations such as high infectiousness, high asymptomatic, high mortality, etc., of one group relative to another. The parameters of the differential SEIR-D model for analyzing the incidence of COVID-19 in Novosibirsk (n ≈ 3·106) from March 23 to June 15, 2020, presented in work [4], were used for calculations in a group model.
This work was conducted within the framework of the budget project 0251-2021-0002 for ICMMG SB RAS.
| Секция конференции | Численное статистическое моделирование и методы Монте-Карло |
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